Q&A - #3: How does COVID compare to the Flu in terms of survival?

Short answer: its worse.

The following numbers are rough*, but I think make the point the questioner was asking about.

So far in the U.S. there have been an estimated 10.5 million cases of COVID and 240,000 deaths as a result.

Last year it was estimated that in the U.S. around 38 million people got influenza. Of those around 400,000 ended up in the hospital, and around 22,000 people died as a result of the flu.

So that means that 2.3% of those with COVID died, while 0.057% of those with influenza died. That’s a big difference. Again rough numbers. And keep in mind, with flu we’re talking about something that we give a vaccine to hundreds of millions of people, we’ve been treating it for years so we know a bit about what we’re doing, there is some immunity in the population from previous infection, etc. With COVID we have no vaccine (yet), limited experience treating it, and hardly anyone has had it when you consider that if there have been 10 million cases, that means there are 320 million to go in the US.

*Very rough, but I think good enough to get a good idea. Both flu and COVID case and death numbers have a lot of caveats, more than what I want to deal with in this question. One significant caveat is that these COVID numbers are not including cases that are not reported or cases that were not even suspected. Some think this number could be 5-10 times the number of known cases. Additionally, there are also likely more deaths than are represented by this number.

Follow up question - What are the survival rates by age?

Here is a link to the CDC's data on how the cases and deaths break down by demographic factors.

As it relates to your question: when you compare the cases and the deaths between various age groups, only 14-15% of the cases are in those aged over 65, but 80% of the deaths are in that group.

References:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_totalcases

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics

https://twitter.com/trvrb?lang=en